Three Strikes - Studies Page

Here you'll find all of the official reports and studies we currently have on-site in support of Three Strikes.

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Last updated 15 Aug. 2007

Three Strikes is acknowledging its 10 year anniversary this year (March 2004). Mike Reynolds has prepared a report showing the results of 10 years of 3-Strikes that should persuade even the most ardent detractor of 3-Strikes and You're Out. We've also added an index page with 3 articles from the LA Times and Sacramento Bee. As you might guess, we believe that Dan Walters was the only one to give 3-Strikes a fair shake. The rest were guilty of selective exclusion of evidence. A distributable PDF copy of the Ten Year Report here.

You'll find a comprehensive report, based on a year-long study, that provides discussion of the positive effects that the Three Strikes law has had in California from the California District Attorneys Association.

Another comprehensive study by The Journal of the Institute for the Advancement of Criminal Justice debunks the numerous myths used by the opposition to attack 3-Strikes and provides real data showing 3-Strikes effectiveness.

A summary of a study from the office of California State Senator Chuck Poochigian is one of the most informative we've seen here at Three Strikes and we're sure you'll find it as an illucidative a piece as we did.

California's Legislative Analyst's Office, ever the source of questionable scholarship, upholds its reputation with its latest release, "A Primer: Three Strikes, The Impact After More Than a Decade. Mike Reynolds asked that his response to Elizabeth Hill be posted here for our visitors to peruse. As you can imagine he wasn not pleased with the study.

Well we here have yet another scholarly study, Does Three Strikes Deter?, supporting California's Three Strikes and You're Out. Just in from George Mason University, Eric Helland and Alexander Tabarrok, have produced "a novel strategy to identify the deterrent effect exclusive of incapacitation." I couldn't have said it better myself (H the editor). As you can read for yourself, "We find that California’s three strike legislation significantly reduces felony arrests rates among the class of criminals with 1 strike by 48 percent and among the class of criminals with 2 strikes by 12.5 percent." That, folks, is great news.

Just in from the California District Attorneys Association, a white paper on the "Prosecutor's Perspective on California's Three Strikes Law. (PDF format)" The preface, by James P. Fox, the San Mateo County District Attorney, is unique in that the DA opposed Three Strikes when first proposed. He has now become convinced of its effectiveness and in retrospect now says,"In reality, the actual implementation of the law has been appropriate. In fact, it has operated as intended, by removing from California communities those who have demonstrated an unwillingness to conform their behavior to the expectations of a civilized society."

Three Strikes has another study, "Tough for Whom?" (PDF format) by a talented criminology professor from UCLA. Professor Walsh shows that it is a myth that most offenders sentenced under the law committed minor offenses as their third strike. On the contrary, two-thirds of those now serving a three-strike sentence in California committed, as their most recent offense, a violent crime, burglary (residential or commercial), or illegal possession of a weapon.

For those looking for information on the so-called "3-Strikes Reform" initiative, Douglas Pipes, Senior Deputy District Attorney for Contra Costa County has provided an analysis of the initiative and a report on the number of second and third strikers that would be released upon the lawabiding in California. Mike has also added a brief prognostication of what the so-called reform initiative would unleash upon the law-abiding of California.

Ever striving to keep our visitors up to date on the latest supporting evidence for California's "Three Strikes and You're Out" sentencing law, Mike has made available numerous documents and studies supplied by the State of California. The first, from the CA Dept. of Corrections (PDF format), Data Analysis Unit, has to do with every aspect of second and third strikers. They are categorized by OFFENSE, COUNTY, GENDER, RACE/ETHNICITY and TYPE OF CONVICTION.

The second, from the CA Dept. of Justice, Criminal Justice Statistics Center, is a compiliation of CRIME AND DELIQUENCY IN CA 2001 (PDF format), CA CRIMINAL JUSTICE PROFILES, 2001 (HTML), HOMICIDE IN CA, 2001 (PDF format)and HATE CRIME IN CA, 2001 (PDF format). Of particular interest is this page, REPORTED CRIME CLEARANCES AND CLEARANCE RATES. It shows that from 1992 through 2000 that there was a significant declination in all categories of crime, due to, in our inestimable opinion, Three Strikes - of course. For those in the know, beginning in 2001, there was a small increase in crime. Given the information spelled out in this article from the LA Times, once these pre-Three Strikes offenders are resentenced under Three Strikes' guidelines, there will be a continuation of the previous declination.

FEAR OF THE FIRST STRIKE: THE FULL DETERRENT EFFECT OF CALIFORNIA'S THREE STRIKE LEGISLATION, by Joanna M. Shepherd of The University of Chicago, first printed in January 2002, states, "Many states have recently enacted three-strikes laws to increase punishment for frequent offenders. However, only California actively enforces its three-strikes legislation. Existing studies of the impact on crime in California consider only partial deterrence: the deterrence of offenders committing their last strike. The only study addressing full deterrence, the deterrence of all potential offenders, examines the impact across all states in a model that does not consider the simultaneity of crime and the passage of three-strikes laws."

Just in, although a little tardy, is a study printed in the April 1999 edition of the U.S. Department of Justice's, "FBI Law Enforcement Bulletin." The article contains detailed information of the deterrent effect of the nation's 3 strike laws, including California's, and offender demographic and socioeconomic data. It is a highly recommended read.

Three Strikes has just added some very interesting statistics on the lengths of sentences, the average sentence, the death sentence and the ethnic composition of prison inmates throughout the United States. Mike Reynolds has written some remarks for your consideration. There is an index through which you can access these studies from the above link. Though California's Three Strike sentencing law receives the lion's share of unfair criticism, California's percentages of the above mentioned categories are not unlike many other states with less agressive sentencing guidelines.

Three Strikes just received a copy of a 5 year study, from 1993 to 1998, conducted by the FBI that shows California leading all the other 49 states in crime reduction. The greatest decrease showing a 49.8% drop in California's homocide rate! The following link will take you to an introduction article by Mike and then to the study itself. The reader should be made aware that California is the only state not to require that the third strike not be serious or violent. This is likely the reason for the significant differences.

This link is to a page containing a statistical breakdown of the gender and ethnic make up of the prison population throughout the United States as 1/1/99 as well as the incarceration rate per 100,000 law-abiding citizens. On January 1^st, 1999, there were 1,310,636 prisoners in various state and federal penetentiaries. This comprises 0.0047% of the U.S. population (percentage a result of the 2000 census).

Did you know that the financial aspects of crime in these United States averages $450 billion per year? Violent crime accounts for $426 billion of that amount! This report from the United States DOJ National Institute of Justice details each category. It is an indepth study of Victim Costs and Consequences. We at Three Strikes also have this study available in Adobe's PDF format.

A January 1996 study from the National Institutes of Justice on The Extent and Costs of Crime. It is one of the first and foremost studies ever to detail the heavy toll of crime on its victims, on society at large, and all the various levels of government. A must read for our visitors here at Three Strikes.

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