| hundred and twenty-three juvenile offenders chose to complete the survey over a 3-day period in March
1997. |
| The Survey |
| The author designed the survey to measure the offenders� experiences with the consequences of their own crimes (specific deterrence), the offenders� vicarious experiences with the consequences of other people�s crimes (general deterrence), and the likeli�hood that the offenders would kill to avoid a life sentence. Three questions measured specific deterrence, three measured general deterrence, and one measured the offenders� intent. The data was sorted according to the following variables: race, age,20 education, family upbringing, offspring, and gang membership.
|
| Results |
| The survey found that 78 percent of the offenders surveyed understood the provisions of California�s three strikes law. The questions that addressed the |
| Survey Questions and Responses |
Maybe |
Yes |
No |
| Do you agree with this statement: "Since I am going to prison for life if I get caught, I may as well kill any witness(es) becuase I have nothing to lose and I may go free if there is no one to testify." |
13% |
54% |
33% |
| If you knew your prison sentence would be doubled, would you commit a serious or violent crime? |
21% |
18% |
61% |
| Do you think someone else would commit a serious or violent crime if they knew their prison sentence would be doubled? |
37% |
31% |
32% |
| If you knew you would receive life in prison with the possibility of paroles after serving 25 years, would you commit a serious or violent crime? |
13% |
17% |
70% |
| Do you think someone else would commit a serious or violent crime if they knew they would receive life in prison with the possibility of parole after serving 25 years? |
31% |
27% |
42% |
| Do you think the three strikes law will stop you from committing a serious or violent crime? |
19% |
35% |
46% |
| Do you think the three strikes law will stop someone else from committing a serious or violent crime? |
19% |
33% |
48% |
|
|
| individual components of the law demonstrated both a specific and general deterrent effect. Specifically, 61 percent of the offenders said they would not or probably would not commit a serious or violent crime if they knew their prison sentence would be doubled; 70 percent said they would not or probably would not commit the crime if they knew they would receive life in prison, thus demonstrating a specific deterrent effect. By comparison, these percentages decreased to 32 percent and 42 percent, respectively, when offend�ers were asked if they thought someone else would commit a crime facing similar prison terms, illustrat�ing a general deterrence effect. |
| However, when offenders viewed the law in general terms, no deterrent effect existed. That is, when the question asked if offenders thought the �three strikes law� would stop them or someone else from committing a serious or violent crime, most offenders said no. These findings suggest that when offenders are confronted with the severity of their punishment in specific, personal terms, the law has a deterrent effect, but if the law is defined in general
terms, the deterrent effect wanes. |
| In addition, the survey found that 54 percent of the offenders indicated that they would kill or probably would kill witnesses or law enforcement officers to avoid a life sentence. This figure rose to 62 percent among offenders who claimed gang membership. These findings should serve as a warning to all law enforcement officers that when offenders, especially gang members, have two or more strikes, the likelihood of violence increases substantially. |
| The survey also determined that race, age, and education did not |
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